***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.7 9.2 1.0 67.5 62.9 6.7 7.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.7 9.1 1.0 68.6 62.6 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.5 8.9 1.0 68.4 62.8 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.0 6.5 0.8 64.4 60.6 2.8 4.0 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.8 6.6 0.8 65.3 61.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.8 4.8 0.7 63.5 60.2 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.6 9.1 1.0 68.2 62.7 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.0 0.8 5.0 0.8 66.1 62.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.5 7.1 0.9 66.8 62.8 5.6 6.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.6 5.6 0.9 66.7 62.6 5.8 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.2 6.2 0.8 66.6 62.4 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.7 5.8 0.8 66.2 62.2 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.8 5.1 0.7 63.1 59.8 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.4 8.1 7.0 0.7 63.8 59.1 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.3 7.1 0.9 66.7 62.0 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.1 5.8 0.7 64.5 60.8 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.7 8.8 0.9 66.6 61.2 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.5 4.9 0.7 64.7 60.6 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.5 9.0 1.0 69.0 62.7 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.4 3.1 0.6 61.7 58.8 1.1 1.8 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.7 8.2 0.9 66.7 62.5 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.8 8.7 0.9 66.8 61.3 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.2 8.6 0.9 68.5 62.2 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.4 6.9 0.8 65.9 60.8 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.0 7.5 0.8 65.6 61.4 5.8 7.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.7 5.3 0.6 61.8 59.3 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.1 8.8 8.4 0.9 66.4 62.2 6.0 7.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.3 6.8 0.8 64.9 60.9 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.1 4.2 0.6 62.8 59.1 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.9 9.2 1.0 68.9 63.0 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------