***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.1 9.9 0.3 55.6 53.8 8.7 9.8 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.3 9.7 0.1 52.0 50.2 7.9 9.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.2 9.6 0.2 53.9 52.3 9.8 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.8 7.3 0.1 52.3 51.3 4.4 5.7 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.8 7.3 0.2 53.9 52.3 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.3 5.7 0.3 54.9 53.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.3 9.7 0.2 52.8 50.9 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.5 5.7 0.2 53.2 52.1 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.6 7.8 0.3 55.4 53.5 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.5 6.3 0.2 53.6 52.2 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.1 6.9 0.3 55.3 53.3 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.3 6.5 0.2 54.8 53.2 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.5 6.0 0.3 55.7 53.7 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.8 7.6 -0.1 48.5 48.2 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.2 7.9 0.2 54.2 53.1 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.0 6.6 0.2 55.0 53.0 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.5 9.4 0.0 49.8 48.4 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 5.5 0.1 51.8 50.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.2 9.6 0.1 52.0 50.4 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.5 3.3 3.9 0.1 52.3 51.3 2.2 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.5 8.9 0.3 55.2 53.6 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.5 9.2 -0.1 47.9 47.2 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.8 9.2 0.1 51.9 50.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 7.5 0.1 51.6 50.7 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 8.1 0.2 54.0 53.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.5 6.3 0.4 58.0 55.3 6.3 7.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 9.1 0.3 55.1 53.6 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.1 7.5 0.1 53.1 51.8 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.8 4.9 0.0 50.8 50.3 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.5 9.8 0.2 53.2 51.4 8.0 9.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------