***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9.2 9.3 9.6 0.8 72.4 67.9 7.8 8.5 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 8.9 9.2 9.5 0.8 73.1 68.0 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.9 9.4 0.8 73.3 68.3 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 5.3 5.2 6.9 0.5 63.6 61.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.3 7.1 0.6 68.6 65.5 6.1 6.7 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.0 5.2 0.5 64.9 62.7 5.2 5.7 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.1 9.5 0.8 72.9 68.4 7.5 8.2 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.0 1.0 5.3 0.6 67.1 64.4 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.1 7.6 0.7 70.9 67.2 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.0 5.9 0.6 68.4 65.3 7.0 7.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.6 6.6 0.6 68.9 66.0 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.1 6.0 0.6 67.9 65.1 5.2 5.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.1 5.6 0.6 67.1 64.5 6.3 6.7 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.6 7.4 0.5 67.3 63.0 7.4 8.0 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.7 7.6 0.5 64.7 62.4 7.8 8.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 8.4 8.4 6.3 0.6 67.5 64.8 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.2 9.2 0.7 70.6 66.3 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 6.0 6.0 5.2 0.5 66.5 63.4 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 8.7 8.9 9.4 0.8 73.5 68.0 7.4 8.1 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.9 3.4 0.5 64.4 62.1 2.1 2.6 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.2 8.7 0.7 71.2 67.2 6.9 7.5 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.3 9.1 0.7 70.8 66.1 7.0 7.6 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.4 8.5 9.0 0.7 72.6 67.0 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.1 7.2 0.6 69.5 65.3 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.4 7.9 0.6 67.0 64.0 7.2 7.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 7.0 7.0 5.7 0.6 66.6 63.8 6.1 6.5 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.2 8.8 0.7 69.7 66.0 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 6.8 6.7 7.2 0.5 64.5 62.2 5.9 6.4 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.3 4.5 0.5 65.3 62.4 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 9.0 9.2 9.6 0.8 73.7 68.5 7.6 8.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------