***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 19.0 19.3 18.2 2.0 75.9 70.2 15.7 17.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 18.7 19.3 18.3 2.1 79.3 72.3 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.6 19.0 18.3 2.0 75.9 69.8 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.2 15.7 1.6 69.9 66.3 8.1 9.5 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 18.7 18.9 16.9 1.9 73.4 69.0 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 17.2 17.1 14.8 1.8 70.7 67.5 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 18.4 18.8 18.1 2.0 78.1 71.8 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 6.3 6.5 15.1 2.0 74.3 69.7 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 18.3 18.6 17.8 2.1 75.1 70.0 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 18.3 18.5 16.2 2.0 74.4 69.6 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 18.5 18.7 16.7 2.0 73.7 69.4 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 17.5 17.7 15.9 2.0 74.4 69.9 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.5 16.0 1.9 73.1 69.1 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 18.4 18.7 17.4 2.0 75.2 69.3 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 18.3 18.3 17.1 1.4 68.6 65.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 18.8 18.9 16.4 1.9 73.1 69.0 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 18.1 18.5 17.9 2.0 78.2 71.7 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 17.9 18.1 15.4 2.0 74.0 69.2 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 18.4 19.0 18.4 2.2 79.5 72.3 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 12.7 12.8 13.1 2.1 74.4 69.9 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 18.5 18.7 18.2 1.9 73.2 68.3 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 18.6 19.1 18.0 2.0 79.0 72.0 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 18.6 19.1 18.3 2.1 78.3 71.3 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 18.2 18.5 17.1 2.0 74.4 69.0 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 18.4 18.5 16.8 1.6 71.0 66.7 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 17.5 17.7 14.9 1.8 72.8 68.7 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.5 17.5 1.8 73.5 68.6 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.3 16.4 1.6 69.7 66.3 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 12.6 12.8 14.6 2.0 74.0 69.3 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 18.5 19.1 18.4 2.1 78.9 72.1 15.2 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------