***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.1 20.0 18.8 0.5 56.6 56.6 18.0 19.5 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 17.7 20.3 18.8 0.6 58.2 56.8 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 17.8 20.0 18.7 0.3 54.6 55.0 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.2 16.7 0.0 50.0 51.9 10.6 12.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.4 19.9 16.9 0.0 50.2 51.9 18.3 19.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.5 15.2 0.2 52.6 53.0 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 17.3 19.9 18.8 0.6 58.9 57.2 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.4 15.3 -0.1 49.0 50.1 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.4 17.4 0.1 50.9 52.3 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.3 16.1 -0.1 49.3 50.6 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.7 16.5 0.1 51.0 52.1 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.8 16.2 0.1 50.8 51.6 17.1 18.7 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.8 15.8 0.2 52.0 52.5 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.7 17.0 0.0 49.8 51.0 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.4 17.0 0.1 51.8 53.1 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.2 16.3 0.1 51.3 52.2 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.1 19.5 18.5 0.5 57.6 55.9 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.8 15.4 -0.2 47.7 49.2 17.4 19.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 17.5 20.0 18.8 0.5 57.1 56.2 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.7 13.0 -0.3 46.1 47.4 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.8 18.1 0.2 52.1 53.4 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 17.8 20.1 18.3 0.3 54.5 53.9 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 17.8 20.2 18.5 0.4 54.9 54.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 17.5 19.3 17.0 0.0 50.1 51.3 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.7 17.2 0.2 52.8 54.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.4 19.1 15.5 0.2 52.8 52.9 17.4 18.9 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 17.6 19.8 18.1 0.4 55.7 55.9 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 20.0 19.5 16.8 0.0 50.4 52.0 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.7 14.3 -0.3 46.8 48.3 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 17.4 20.0 18.9 0.6 58.0 56.9 17.7 19.3 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------