***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.6 20.5 0.6 57.8 54.1 20.8 22.1 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.2 20.2 0.3 54.9 51.8 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.3 20.5 0.5 57.1 53.6 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.9 18.6 0.4 55.7 53.3 12.9 14.4 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.4 18.9 0.6 58.3 55.2 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.7 17.1 0.7 58.3 55.9 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.8 20.2 0.4 55.1 52.1 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.9 17.4 0.7 58.8 56.2 7.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.0 19.4 0.7 59.0 55.7 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.8 18.2 0.7 58.7 55.8 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.2 18.6 0.8 60.5 57.1 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.9 21.2 18.3 0.8 59.8 57.0 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.0 17.8 0.7 59.1 56.6 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.8 18.7 0.2 52.5 50.6 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.9 18.8 0.3 54.9 52.8 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.5 18.3 0.7 59.4 56.5 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.1 19.8 0.1 51.8 49.9 19.5 20.9 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.2 17.4 0.5 56.5 54.3 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.8 20.3 0.4 55.0 51.9 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 15.1 0.5 55.7 54.1 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.2 20.0 0.6 57.9 54.6 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 19.8 21.5 19.7 0.0 49.4 48.1 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.3 22.0 20.1 0.4 54.7 51.8 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.6 18.9 0.5 55.7 53.1 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.0 18.9 0.4 55.3 52.7 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.1 17.5 0.7 59.0 56.6 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.8 19.6 0.4 55.8 52.8 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.1 18.8 0.4 56.4 53.9 20.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 16.3 0.4 55.5 53.7 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.0 20.4 0.4 56.3 52.8 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------