***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 21.3 21.3 19.9 1.0 70.2 65.8 19.3 20.2 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 21.2 21.3 19.8 1.0 70.4 66.0 19.1 20.1 21.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 21.1 21.2 19.9 0.9 69.0 65.0 19.2 20.1 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 13.7 13.5 17.8 0.6 63.1 60.6 11.9 12.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 21.1 21.1 18.3 0.8 66.2 63.1 19.4 20.2 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 18.9 19.4 16.4 0.8 65.8 62.6 17.9 18.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 20.8 20.9 19.8 1.0 70.2 65.8 18.8 19.7 20.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.5 16.6 0.8 65.1 62.2 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 20.6 20.6 18.9 0.9 67.6 64.2 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 19.9 20.4 17.5 0.8 65.8 62.8 18.9 19.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 20.8 20.8 18.0 0.9 67.7 64.2 19.0 19.9 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 19.2 19.7 17.5 0.8 66.8 63.3 18.2 19.0 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 20.1 20.7 17.2 0.8 66.6 63.1 19.0 19.8 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.7 18.4 0.7 63.3 60.7 19.0 20.0 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.6 18.3 0.6 62.8 60.3 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 21.2 21.2 17.7 0.8 66.9 63.4 19.4 20.3 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 20.4 20.4 19.5 0.8 67.7 64.0 18.4 19.4 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 19.5 19.9 16.8 0.7 63.5 61.0 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 20.8 21.0 19.9 1.0 70.2 65.9 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.8 14.4 0.6 61.6 59.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 20.9 20.9 19.5 0.8 67.0 63.6 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.9 19.4 0.7 65.5 62.3 19.0 20.0 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 21.1 21.2 19.7 0.9 68.6 64.7 19.1 20.1 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 19.9 20.4 18.4 0.8 65.0 62.1 18.7 19.6 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 20.9 20.7 18.3 0.7 64.8 62.0 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 19.3 19.8 16.7 0.8 65.7 62.4 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 20.8 20.7 19.1 0.8 67.3 63.8 18.9 19.8 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 20.9 20.7 18.1 0.6 63.5 60.8 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.8 15.7 0.6 62.2 59.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 20.9 21.1 20.0 1.0 71.1 66.4 18.8 19.8 20.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------