***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 18.9 23.7 18.9 158.4 79.6 61.0 7.2 11.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 15.1 16.9 17.9 143.2 76.8 59.4 3.8 7.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 18.5 22.2 18.1 147.3 77.4 60.4 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 21.3 21.8 142.6 76.0 61.1 7.5 11.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 17.0 21.2 136.6 74.5 59.7 4.7 8.3 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.6 13.4 24.5 113.7 67.1 57.7 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 15.0 16.7 18.0 141.8 76.3 59.5 4.6 8.0 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.8 25.5 23.1 126.8 71.6 61.7 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 14.9 21.0 132.8 73.4 59.9 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.9 18.4 23.7 128.2 72.1 60.3 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.7 14.9 19.6 129.8 72.6 59.9 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 14.0 15.5 19.9 130.1 72.7 61.3 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.4 23.0 128.0 72.0 60.3 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 18.3 20.5 23.0 137.8 75.1 58.9 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 14.4 19.5 123.5 70.9 57.4 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.7 15.2 20.3 122.6 70.3 58.2 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.4 17.1 131.4 73.2 57.1 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 20.8 26.7 126.6 71.6 59.3 6.6 11.5 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.5 19.5 17.8 145.6 77.3 59.1 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 16.4 17.3 28.9 125.0 71.1 61.6 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.4 14.6 18.9 141.2 75.6 60.1 4.4 7.4 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.6 13.9 17.1 133.8 73.7 56.5 4.3 7.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 13.0 15.4 18.4 145.6 77.0 57.9 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.3 20.1 22.9 132.0 73.3 58.7 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.1 20.2 22.8 146.6 77.2 62.0 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.6 14.5 22.0 131.9 73.2 62.2 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 17.8 22.3 21.7 151.4 78.3 61.9 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.9 20.2 126.7 71.6 58.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 25.5 28.1 132.0 73.4 61.5 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.1 18.9 18.1 148.6 78.1 60.4 5.2 8.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------