***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.2 12.7 95.5 59.7 51.6 1.9 3.7 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.5 13.1 97.9 60.7 52.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.4 12.6 89.0 56.3 50.0 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 16.1 90.7 57.3 46.5 4.3 7.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.1 15.1 84.0 54.9 45.2 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.9 20.5 85.6 54.2 46.4 3.6 6.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.0 13.0 98.8 61.1 53.7 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.6 17.1 88.5 55.9 46.6 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.2 14.5 82.0 54.0 45.4 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.7 17.1 83.0 53.2 44.7 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.9 13.8 80.8 53.7 43.1 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.8 13.7 85.7 56.0 45.6 3.9 7.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.6 16.4 84.3 54.1 45.5 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.9 17.5 96.8 59.6 50.3 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.5 15.3 95.7 60.4 48.0 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.3 15.0 80.7 53.0 43.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.6 7.1 13.7 108.4 65.2 55.4 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.0 19.4 84.3 53.3 45.7 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.7 13.2 98.4 60.9 52.9 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.8 22.9 94.9 58.0 49.6 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.6 13.0 88.6 57.2 48.7 2.4 4.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.6 14.1 114.2 67.4 56.8 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.8 13.5 97.5 60.8 52.2 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.0 16.2 86.3 54.5 47.5 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.0 16.4 95.4 59.0 49.8 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.2 14.8 87.4 55.8 46.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.9 15.4 97.4 59.9 51.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.2 15.6 90.8 58.0 46.5 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.4 20.9 90.9 56.4 48.3 4.7 9.1 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 12.8 94.1 58.7 51.6 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------