***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 48.1 50.4 56.8 106.0 61.2 53.2 32.9 43.0 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 39.6 40.3 53.9 103.1 58.6 52.5 24.7 34.5 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 52.6 52.4 55.1 102.5 58.0 51.5 35.7 46.5 58.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 51.9 69.1 67.8 100.2 56.6 49.5 52.5 64.3 76.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 34.9 49.9 64.6 96.8 53.3 47.6 35.6 47.4 60.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 57.7 51.6 77.4 93.7 50.4 47.8 38.8 51.3 65.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.8 41.8 52.9 100.7 56.5 51.1 27.7 37.6 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 95.2 92.9 70.6 99.1 54.6 49.4 77.5 89.7 101.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 34.9 49.7 63.6 97.3 53.6 48.1 35.2 47.0 60.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 60.7 57.2 72.5 97.7 53.3 48.3 43.7 54.7 66.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 35.9 50.1 60.5 96.8 53.2 47.9 36.5 47.9 60.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 57.4 55.6 58.9 97.6 53.7 48.6 45.9 53.7 62.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 56.9 53.4 68.1 95.8 51.8 48.6 43.2 52.5 62.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 63.6 67.8 72.2 107.9 62.7 54.5 42.8 56.4 71.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 32.1 47.5 62.2 96.7 54.3 47.0 33.3 44.4 56.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 55.1 48.5 62.4 92.8 49.3 45.8 37.9 49.0 61.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 46.5 46.9 53.3 102.6 58.3 53.1 28.4 40.3 54.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 64.7 61.8 81.0 98.9 54.2 49.1 47.2 58.7 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 50.8 52.9 54.4 105.1 60.3 53.3 33.8 45.2 57.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 57.2 57.5 90.2 102.7 57.8 52.7 44.7 53.3 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 34.5 48.8 57.8 100.5 56.6 50.1 35.8 45.0 54.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 43.1 47.3 56.2 110.1 64.4 56.4 28.7 38.1 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 47.8 50.3 56.9 107.3 62.1 53.7 32.1 42.2 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 63.2 61.4 69.5 100.9 56.3 50.4 43.9 56.3 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 57.8 59.2 70.7 104.0 59.5 52.3 39.6 51.5 64.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 48.1 45.5 62.5 97.0 52.9 49.4 34.0 43.8 54.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 53.1 55.6 66.5 105.3 60.6 53.2 35.8 47.3 60.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 34.9 47.5 63.6 96.0 53.1 46.7 36.1 45.5 56.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 80.3 82.1 85.7 104.5 59.7 53.3 58.4 73.1 88.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 42.7 43.6 54.3 103.5 59.0 52.5 26.4 37.2 49.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------