***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 6.1 6.6 -0.4 43.3 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 6.1 6.0 6.9 0.1 52.1 51.5 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.0 6.8 0.1 51.0 50.6 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 2.7 2.5 4.9 0.0 50.7 50.5 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 5.3 5.2 5.2 0.1 52.6 52.3 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 4.4 4.8 3.4 0.6 60.3 59.4 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.0 6.8 0.0 49.2 49.0 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -1.3 -0.8 3.7 0.8 62.6 61.7 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 6.0 6.0 5.7 0.3 55.2 54.6 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 6.0 6.4 4.5 0.6 60.8 59.8 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 5.8 6.2 5.0 0.6 59.8 59.0 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 4.4 4.8 4.2 0.6 59.9 59.1 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.6 4.0 0.4 57.0 56.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 6.4 6.5 5.9 0.4 56.9 56.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.0 50.9 50.6 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 6.3 6.4 4.5 0.3 55.9 55.3 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 6.4 6.4 6.8 0.2 54.1 53.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 4.0 4.5 3.9 0.7 61.9 60.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 6.2 6.1 6.9 0.1 52.6 52.0 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.0 65.3 64.2 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 6.0 6.0 6.6 0.1 52.5 52.1 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 5.7 5.8 6.8 0.3 55.9 54.9 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 5.9 5.7 6.6 0.1 52.6 52.2 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.8 6.1 5.7 0.5 58.9 57.8 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 6.2 5.6 5.8 -0.3 45.3 45.6 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 5.1 4.8 3.2 0.0 49.9 49.9 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 6.7 5.8 6.1 -0.4 42.9 43.4 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 5.1 5.1 5.5 0.2 53.7 53.2 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 3.6 3.8 3.5 1.1 68.5 66.9 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 6.4 6.2 6.9 0.0 49.8 49.4 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------