***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 6.9 7.7 -0.9 34.3 39.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.8 6.5 7.7 -0.8 35.0 40.0 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.6 7.6 -0.7 36.6 41.2 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.1 5.8 -0.7 35.7 40.8 2.8 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.4 5.8 -0.7 36.9 41.4 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.5 3.9 -0.7 36.6 40.8 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 6.1 6.6 7.6 -0.9 33.4 38.8 6.6 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 4.1 -0.7 37.2 42.0 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.1 6.3 -0.7 37.2 41.7 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.8 6.3 4.9 -0.6 37.5 42.2 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.8 5.4 -0.6 38.1 42.0 5.5 6.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.5 4.9 -0.6 37.8 42.0 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.1 5.6 4.3 -0.7 37.0 40.8 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.2 6.8 6.3 -0.7 36.3 42.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 6.3 6.8 6.4 -0.7 36.3 41.1 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.9 5.0 -0.6 38.1 41.8 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.9 7.5 -0.8 34.9 39.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.2 -0.7 36.4 41.9 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.7 7.7 -0.7 36.1 41.0 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.4 -0.9 34.4 40.5 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.5 6.1 7.1 -0.7 36.8 41.4 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 5.6 6.3 7.5 -0.7 36.2 41.1 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.5 7.5 -0.7 36.9 41.9 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.6 6.2 6.1 -0.7 36.8 42.1 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.1 6.3 -0.9 33.2 39.1 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.5 4.4 -0.8 35.8 40.1 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.7 6.3 7.0 -1.0 32.8 38.5 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.0 6.1 -0.6 37.3 41.6 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.5 3.6 -0.7 36.1 41.8 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 6.1 6.7 7.7 -0.8 34.9 39.9 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------