***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 7.6 8.7 -1.0 31.8 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 7.5 8.1 8.6 -0.9 32.4 38.4 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.6 10.1 8.5 -0.9 33.2 39.0 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.6 6.7 -1.0 30.2 36.7 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.6 -1.0 30.2 36.9 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.5 4.8 -0.9 32.5 39.1 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 7.6 8.1 8.5 -1.0 31.2 37.5 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.4 0.5 5.0 -1.0 30.7 37.4 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 7.2 7.5 7.1 -1.0 31.2 37.5 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.5 5.7 -1.0 30.9 37.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.0 6.1 -1.0 29.8 36.7 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.4 5.7 -1.0 30.0 36.9 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.4 6.4 5.1 -1.0 30.2 37.0 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.1 -0.8 32.6 38.8 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.2 7.2 -1.0 31.0 36.9 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.7 7.8 5.8 -1.0 30.3 37.1 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 8.3 8.7 8.4 -1.0 31.3 37.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.2 5.0 -1.0 31.4 38.0 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 7.8 8.4 8.6 -0.8 33.4 39.2 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.4 2.4 3.2 -1.0 30.9 38.1 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 7.1 7.5 8.0 -1.0 32.2 38.2 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 7.5 7.9 8.3 -0.9 31.5 38.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 7.6 8.1 8.4 -0.8 34.3 40.0 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.7 6.9 -0.9 32.6 38.8 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 7.6 7.9 7.3 -1.1 31.0 37.1 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.3 6.3 5.2 -1.1 27.9 35.2 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 7.4 8.0 8.0 -1.1 31.3 37.2 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.2 6.3 6.9 -1.0 30.9 37.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 4.8 4.4 -1.0 31.3 38.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.7 -0.9 32.3 38.3 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------