***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 9.7 10.2 -0.6 40.5 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.8 9.9 -0.7 38.8 43.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.5 9.9 -0.5 41.9 45.6 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.3 8.1 -0.6 39.7 44.4 5.9 7.0 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.2 8.0 -0.5 41.3 45.2 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.2 6.3 -0.4 41.8 45.3 6.7 7.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.8 9.9 -0.7 38.8 43.4 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.1 6.4 -0.4 43.1 46.6 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.1 8.4 -0.5 41.7 45.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.1 7.0 -0.4 42.8 46.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.8 7.6 -0.4 42.5 45.9 8.3 9.2 10.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.3 7.1 -0.4 43.0 46.2 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.4 6.6 -0.4 42.4 45.2 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.8 8.4 -0.4 43.1 46.3 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.1 8.7 -0.6 38.3 43.5 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.4 7.3 -0.4 42.7 45.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.1 9.6 -0.8 37.0 41.7 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.5 6.4 -0.3 43.4 46.8 7.0 7.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.3 9.8 9.8 -0.6 39.8 44.1 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.2 4.8 -0.3 43.9 47.2 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.1 9.4 -0.5 41.3 45.2 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.3 9.5 -0.7 37.2 41.9 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.6 9.6 -0.5 41.5 45.4 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.4 8.2 -0.4 43.3 46.5 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.4 8.8 -0.6 39.5 44.3 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.0 6.7 -0.5 40.4 43.9 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.8 9.5 -0.6 40.2 44.8 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.1 8.4 -0.5 40.5 44.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 5.8 -0.3 44.4 47.5 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.8 10.0 -0.6 39.8 44.2 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------