***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 7.8 8.3 -0.7 30.0 34.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.5 8.2 -0.6 33.0 37.1 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 9.1 9.5 8.2 -0.5 34.9 38.3 9.4 10.2 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 3.8 4.2 6.4 -0.6 31.9 35.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 6.0 6.4 6.4 -0.5 34.0 37.5 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.5 4.6 -0.4 38.5 41.4 5.4 5.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.7 8.2 -0.7 31.1 35.6 7.7 8.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -0.2 0.3 4.8 -0.3 40.1 42.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.2 6.9 -0.5 35.6 38.6 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.0 7.4 5.5 -0.3 39.1 41.2 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 6.6 7.0 6.0 -0.4 38.3 40.8 6.8 7.3 7.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.5 5.5 -0.4 38.7 41.2 5.4 5.8 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 6.2 6.6 5.0 -0.4 36.4 39.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.5 7.8 6.9 -0.4 37.6 40.3 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 7.7 8.0 7.1 -0.6 32.0 36.0 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 7.3 7.7 5.6 -0.4 36.6 39.7 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 7.7 8.0 8.1 -0.6 32.4 36.8 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.4 4.9 -0.3 39.6 41.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.7 8.2 -0.5 34.4 38.3 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 2.2 2.5 3.1 -0.3 40.8 43.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 6.8 7.2 7.8 -0.5 34.7 38.0 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.0 7.3 8.1 -0.5 33.6 38.1 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.5 8.0 -0.4 35.9 39.4 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.3 6.7 -0.4 38.6 41.0 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 7.1 7.3 7.0 -0.7 29.2 33.7 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 6.1 6.3 4.9 -0.6 31.0 35.8 6.3 6.7 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.7 -0.8 28.8 33.4 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.2 6.7 -0.5 34.5 37.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.7 4.3 -0.2 43.3 44.5 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 7.5 7.8 8.3 -0.6 32.6 36.7 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------