***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 18.1 17.7 0.7 60.2 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 17.6 18.4 17.7 0.9 64.4 62.6 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.1 17.7 0.7 59.4 58.3 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.5 10.4 15.2 0.2 53.4 53.1 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 17.9 17.6 15.8 0.1 51.2 51.2 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.2 12.7 -0.9 38.4 39.7 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 17.4 18.0 17.6 0.8 62.8 61.3 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.3 4.9 13.8 -0.1 49.4 49.6 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.2 16.8 0.2 52.8 52.6 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.1 14.9 0.0 49.9 50.1 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 17.6 17.0 15.3 -0.2 47.5 47.9 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.1 14.5 -0.2 47.3 47.8 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.6 16.6 14.2 -0.5 43.2 44.1 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.6 18.0 16.9 0.7 60.1 58.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 17.7 17.8 16.8 0.4 55.3 54.7 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.1 14.9 -0.4 45.4 46.0 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 17.9 17.9 17.6 1.1 66.4 64.2 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.0 16.9 14.4 0.3 53.3 53.1 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 17.4 18.2 17.8 1.0 64.5 62.6 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.9 12.3 0.6 57.3 56.5 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.6 17.5 0.4 55.3 54.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 18.6 18.7 17.8 1.2 68.3 65.6 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.5 17.9 0.9 63.7 61.9 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 17.4 17.4 16.3 0.4 55.7 55.1 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.9 16.5 0.6 57.9 57.0 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.1 13.5 -0.3 45.4 46.1 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 17.4 17.8 17.2 0.7 60.1 59.0 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 17.7 17.4 15.7 0.0 50.1 50.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.8 11.8 13.7 0.5 56.3 55.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 17.4 18.1 17.8 0.9 62.9 61.3 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------