***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 17.6 17.3 -1.3 34.2 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 17.8 18.4 17.1 -1.2 34.5 38.6 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.6 18.4 17.4 -1.2 35.3 39.9 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 9.9 10.9 15.8 -1.2 34.8 39.8 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 17.6 18.6 15.9 -1.2 34.8 40.0 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 15.8 16.8 13.8 -1.3 33.2 39.2 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 17.4 18.0 17.0 -1.3 33.6 38.0 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.3 6.3 14.4 -1.3 34.3 39.7 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 17.2 18.1 16.3 -1.2 34.9 40.0 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 17.2 18.1 15.2 -1.3 34.6 39.9 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 17.2 18.3 15.5 -1.2 34.7 39.9 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 16.3 17.3 15.2 -1.2 34.2 39.5 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 17.2 18.2 14.6 -1.3 33.6 39.3 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 17.5 18.6 16.1 -1.2 35.8 40.3 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 17.3 18.2 16.1 -1.1 35.0 39.7 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 17.6 18.7 15.2 -1.2 34.3 39.7 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 17.0 17.7 16.8 -1.3 34.2 38.0 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 16.6 17.6 14.5 -1.3 34.2 39.8 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 17.5 18.2 17.2 -1.2 35.3 39.4 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 11.6 12.6 12.3 -1.4 33.7 39.7 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 17.5 18.4 17.0 -1.2 35.0 40.0 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.9 -1.2 35.3 38.7 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 17.8 18.6 17.2 -1.1 36.1 40.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 17.1 18.1 16.1 -1.3 35.0 40.0 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 17.5 18.3 15.9 -1.2 34.2 39.3 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 16.6 17.5 14.4 -1.3 33.5 38.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 17.5 18.1 16.5 -1.3 33.8 38.9 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 17.3 18.3 16.0 -1.2 34.9 39.9 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 11.5 12.5 13.5 -1.4 34.0 39.7 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 17.5 18.1 17.2 -1.2 34.4 38.8 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------