***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 20.5 18.2 -1.1 34.4 39.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.9 18.0 -1.0 35.9 40.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 20.3 20.9 18.3 -1.1 35.7 40.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 12.5 13.1 16.6 -1.3 31.8 37.3 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.6 16.8 -1.3 32.4 38.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 17.9 18.5 14.7 -1.6 30.0 36.2 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.0 20.4 17.9 -1.1 34.6 39.6 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.7 15.1 -1.4 31.6 38.1 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.1 17.1 -1.3 33.4 38.9 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 19.6 20.1 15.9 -1.3 32.8 38.7 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.1 16.3 -1.4 31.6 37.9 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 18.6 19.0 16.0 -1.4 30.8 37.5 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 19.2 19.7 15.4 -1.5 30.1 36.9 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.0 20.8 17.0 -1.0 37.6 41.4 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 19.9 20.4 17.0 -1.3 31.5 36.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 19.9 20.3 15.9 -1.5 30.4 37.0 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.5 20.1 17.8 -1.0 36.2 40.9 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.6 15.3 -1.3 34.1 39.4 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 19.9 20.6 18.2 -1.0 36.9 41.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.3 13.0 -1.3 32.7 38.8 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 20.0 20.5 17.8 -1.2 34.2 39.3 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.8 18.0 -0.9 38.2 42.1 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.0 18.2 -0.9 37.8 41.5 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 19.6 20.3 16.9 -1.1 35.8 40.2 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.5 16.8 -1.2 33.4 38.6 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 18.3 18.9 15.2 -1.5 30.3 36.8 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.9 20.5 17.4 -1.2 33.9 39.0 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 19.9 20.3 16.8 -1.4 30.9 36.5 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 13.8 14.5 14.3 -1.3 34.2 39.6 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.7 18.2 -1.1 35.4 40.0 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------