***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 21.6 19.9 -0.6 42.7 44.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 20.2 21.6 19.5 -0.8 40.8 42.9 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.5 21.9 20.0 -0.6 43.5 45.1 20.9 22.5 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 13.4 14.7 18.4 -0.6 42.2 44.7 13.9 15.3 16.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 20.5 22.0 18.5 -0.6 43.2 45.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 19.1 20.4 16.7 -0.6 43.0 45.3 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 19.9 21.2 19.4 -0.8 39.9 42.2 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.5 16.9 -0.6 42.9 45.0 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 19.9 21.4 18.9 -0.5 43.8 45.8 20.4 22.0 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 19.9 21.3 17.7 -0.6 43.5 45.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 19.9 21.3 18.0 -0.6 42.8 45.0 20.5 22.0 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.5 17.7 -0.7 42.2 44.5 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 20.1 21.4 17.3 -0.7 41.7 44.1 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.7 18.5 -0.6 43.2 45.0 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.8 18.6 -0.7 41.2 44.1 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 20.6 22.0 17.8 -0.6 42.2 44.5 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 19.4 20.6 19.1 -0.9 39.3 41.8 20.1 21.6 23.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 19.3 20.8 17.0 -0.6 43.6 45.5 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 19.8 21.2 19.6 -0.7 42.1 43.9 20.4 21.9 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.9 14.9 -0.6 42.9 45.3 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.7 19.6 -0.5 43.9 45.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 20.0 21.3 19.2 -0.8 40.2 42.5 20.7 22.2 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.7 19.6 -0.6 43.3 44.9 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 19.9 21.3 18.5 -0.6 43.8 45.5 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 20.3 21.6 18.5 -0.6 42.5 44.6 20.8 22.3 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 19.5 20.7 17.1 -0.7 41.8 44.3 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 20.0 21.4 19.1 -0.7 42.1 44.0 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.9 18.6 -0.7 41.9 44.6 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 14.3 15.8 16.1 -0.6 43.3 45.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 20.0 21.4 19.7 -0.7 41.5 43.5 20.6 22.1 23.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------