***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 19.5 18.3 -0.6 37.0 39.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.7 18.1 -0.5 38.5 40.9 19.3 20.4 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 20.9 19.8 18.3 -0.5 38.2 40.7 19.5 20.4 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.3 16.5 -0.7 33.6 37.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 19.4 19.7 16.8 -0.8 33.6 37.4 19.6 20.5 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 17.5 17.8 14.5 -1.1 26.4 31.8 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 18.8 19.2 18.0 -0.6 36.6 39.6 19.0 20.0 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.9 7.2 15.1 -0.8 32.3 36.5 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 18.9 19.2 17.3 -0.7 34.8 38.4 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 18.9 19.2 15.9 -0.8 33.3 37.3 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 18.9 19.1 16.3 -0.8 31.7 36.0 19.2 20.0 20.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 18.1 18.3 15.8 -0.9 30.8 35.3 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 18.8 19.0 15.4 -1.0 28.3 33.5 19.2 20.1 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 19.1 19.7 17.1 -0.5 39.2 41.1 19.3 20.3 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 19.2 19.5 17.1 -0.7 34.0 37.2 19.4 20.3 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 19.3 19.5 15.9 -0.9 29.8 34.5 19.7 20.6 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.0 17.8 -0.5 38.5 41.0 18.6 19.6 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 18.4 18.8 15.3 -0.7 35.0 38.4 18.6 19.5 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 18.9 19.4 18.2 -0.5 39.9 41.8 19.0 20.0 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.7 13.1 -0.7 35.9 39.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.2 19.5 18.0 -0.6 36.2 39.3 19.3 20.3 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.7 18.0 -0.4 40.7 42.5 19.2 20.3 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 20.8 19.8 18.2 -0.4 40.8 42.4 19.4 20.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 18.9 19.2 17.0 -0.6 36.9 39.6 19.0 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 19.2 19.5 16.9 -0.6 35.9 39.0 19.3 20.2 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 18.1 18.3 15.0 -0.9 29.1 34.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.0 19.4 17.6 -0.6 36.5 39.4 19.2 20.1 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.4 16.7 -0.8 31.9 35.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.3 13.7 14.4 -0.7 36.1 39.1 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 18.9 19.4 18.2 -0.5 38.1 40.6 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------