***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 1.8 6.1 37.6 23.3 21.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 3.9 3.2 5.1 34.9 20.7 20.0 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 6.5 6.3 6.8 41.2 24.7 22.9 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 9.4 10.3 9.5 53.3 30.3 28.1 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 6.9 7.4 9.6 52.1 29.7 27.7 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 7.7 12.5 15.6 84.9 51.8 46.2 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 2.7 2.1 5.0 34.3 20.7 19.9 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 15.4 16.0 10.7 56.1 31.5 29.5 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 6.1 5.9 8.9 48.0 26.2 24.7 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 8.1 8.5 10.8 54.2 30.4 28.1 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 6.5 7.0 9.5 55.7 33.0 30.6 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.1 9.8 9.4 57.0 34.0 31.7 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.6 11.9 12.0 67.4 40.8 37.7 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 7.0 7.3 8.4 46.8 28.1 25.4 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 4.3 5.3 8.5 52.9 30.9 27.6 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.0 11.0 64.7 38.2 35.6 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.0 4.4 30.8 20.5 19.2 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 8.8 9.5 11.9 54.9 30.5 28.2 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.9 3.3 5.6 36.9 22.0 21.0 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 8.0 8.6 12.5 55.5 31.1 28.8 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 5.7 5.6 7.5 43.5 25.2 23.5 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 3.3 2.8 4.8 32.5 21.9 20.6 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 4.5 4.2 6.4 40.0 24.9 22.7 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 7.5 7.6 9.5 49.1 27.5 25.5 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 4.7 4.1 8.5 44.6 23.8 23.1 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.4 6.4 10.3 59.9 37.1 34.5 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 3.9 3.6 7.2 40.0 22.4 21.7 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 5.7 6.9 10.1 60.8 35.7 32.3 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 12.1 13.2 12.2 56.3 32.1 29.3 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 3.2 2.4 5.5 36.1 21.1 20.2 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------