***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.3 13.8 103.5 63.4 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.5 14.2 102.0 63.5 53.6 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.7 14.0 104.3 64.1 53.5 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.1 13.7 15.7 99.6 62.4 51.2 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.6 12.1 16.4 108.0 65.2 52.3 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.4 12.7 22.1 111.0 66.4 55.8 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.6 14.1 101.8 63.6 53.8 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 22.2 19.7 121.5 69.8 56.2 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.9 16.6 113.6 67.1 53.4 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.6 19.3 116.9 68.0 54.7 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.0 16.4 114.5 67.7 54.5 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.7 12.7 16.5 116.6 68.5 55.2 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.3 18.2 104.7 64.2 53.9 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 15.6 17.0 103.7 63.3 53.1 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 9.9 14.2 98.5 62.5 51.1 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 11.4 16.8 105.2 64.5 53.3 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.7 14.1 102.4 63.9 52.9 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 14.6 20.7 107.8 64.3 52.9 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.5 14.0 101.8 63.2 53.2 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.9 23.7 108.5 64.4 53.2 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.4 14.5 109.2 65.7 52.7 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.6 14.3 105.0 64.4 53.5 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.8 14.1 103.4 63.6 53.5 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.0 17.5 106.8 64.4 53.4 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.2 15.7 94.4 59.3 50.0 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.6 11.1 16.9 114.3 67.7 55.1 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.2 15.2 97.2 60.6 51.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.6 15.5 102.3 64.0 52.1 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.4 17.4 21.4 106.4 63.7 53.0 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.1 14.1 101.7 63.3 53.7 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------