***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 5.2 13.8 98.6 62.0 51.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.6 13.4 85.7 56.3 47.1 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.6 14.9 102.4 63.0 51.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.5 13.8 18.8 105.1 65.0 53.9 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.3 19.1 111.4 66.7 55.1 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.3 12.8 27.5 119.3 69.0 59.3 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.8 13.5 84.3 55.9 47.0 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.5 23.7 21.5 113.5 67.1 57.0 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.2 18.8 112.3 66.7 54.7 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.2 21.4 112.7 66.8 56.1 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.1 11.4 18.8 117.4 68.7 57.0 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.2 14.0 18.9 118.9 69.2 58.0 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.2 23.0 118.3 68.8 58.4 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.6 19.4 101.6 62.9 51.9 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.2 17.2 102.8 64.9 53.4 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.7 20.9 118.9 69.2 57.8 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.3 13.1 81.4 55.1 45.4 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 15.2 23.7 109.6 65.6 54.7 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.1 13.6 88.8 57.6 47.7 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.3 26.7 105.8 63.5 54.0 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.5 16.1 109.0 65.7 53.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.7 13.5 82.1 55.1 45.3 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.1 14.8 95.0 60.2 48.9 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.7 20.0 108.0 65.1 53.6 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.8 17.5 98.8 62.0 51.8 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.2 12.0 20.4 113.9 67.2 57.7 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.2 16.0 95.5 60.7 51.1 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.3 18.9 108.5 66.4 54.7 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 18.3 24.3 107.7 64.7 53.8 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 13.6 89.3 57.8 48.5 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------