***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 31.5 48.7 85.8 41.9 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 23.4 29.2 48.8 84.7 40.6 40.4 25.1 34.5 45.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 31.9 41.5 50.4 87.5 42.5 40.7 35.5 46.3 58.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 48.4 60.6 62.7 91.9 48.9 44.4 50.9 61.3 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 33.4 47.0 62.8 94.1 50.0 44.8 35.5 47.0 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 37.2 57.4 85.5 104.1 59.3 52.1 37.9 50.1 63.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 26.0 31.8 49.0 84.8 41.2 40.9 27.2 36.9 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 75.0 91.9 69.5 96.9 52.1 47.4 78.0 90.1 102.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 32.4 46.6 61.0 94.0 49.1 44.0 35.6 47.3 60.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 41.4 54.9 69.3 95.0 49.7 45.4 43.9 55.1 67.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 34.2 48.8 60.9 97.4 53.2 46.9 35.7 46.5 58.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 44.0 54.8 60.4 97.7 53.9 47.8 45.4 53.1 60.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 40.4 52.3 71.0 97.9 53.8 48.4 41.5 50.4 59.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 39.4 52.0 63.0 89.6 44.1 41.4 43.2 56.8 72.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 30.2 42.7 57.7 91.6 49.9 44.7 32.1 43.0 55.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 36.1 50.1 66.0 98.3 54.3 48.0 37.2 47.4 58.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 27.1 33.8 47.7 82.4 39.9 39.2 29.3 40.6 53.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 43.3 56.2 75.3 92.1 45.8 43.2 47.0 59.4 73.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 31.6 39.0 48.6 84.8 40.5 39.8 34.4 45.2 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 41.1 51.0 84.6 92.5 46.4 44.8 44.2 52.9 62.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 32.8 43.0 53.4 91.0 46.8 42.8 35.7 44.9 54.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 26.9 32.7 48.0 82.0 39.8 39.0 29.3 38.2 47.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 28.5 36.3 50.6 86.2 41.8 40.0 31.3 41.4 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 40.2 53.2 63.9 90.7 44.7 41.8 44.6 57.3 71.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 35.0 43.9 60.3 85.9 41.5 40.2 38.1 49.9 63.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 31.9 44.4 63.7 95.6 52.2 47.4 33.4 43.1 53.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 32.6 40.0 55.8 84.3 39.9 39.8 35.3 46.9 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 33.0 46.0 62.4 95.5 52.7 46.8 34.6 44.4 54.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 54.8 70.1 77.3 92.1 45.9 43.7 59.0 73.8 89.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.6 31.1 48.9 85.1 40.8 40.5 26.6 36.9 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------