***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.9 6.7 -0.6 38.4 40.8 5.5 6.6 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.1 6.4 -0.5 38.9 41.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.1 6.8 -0.6 37.9 40.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 0.6 0.4 3.2 -1.5 21.6 25.8 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.5 3.6 4.6 -1.0 29.9 33.4 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.2 1.2 -1.7 17.2 21.5 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.8 5.6 6.6 -0.4 41.6 43.9 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -2.5 2.2 -0.7 35.6 37.9 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.6 4.9 4.9 -0.6 35.8 38.9 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.9 3.2 -0.7 36.0 38.6 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.4 4.2 -0.9 30.5 34.0 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.0 3.0 -1.0 30.4 33.6 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 3.4 3.0 2.5 -1.6 17.5 23.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.1 4.5 -0.8 32.6 36.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 5.2 5.1 5.0 -1.2 24.4 28.6 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 4.3 4.1 3.2 -1.4 21.3 26.1 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.5 6.1 -0.6 37.3 40.7 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.0 2.6 -0.8 34.9 37.2 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.3 6.5 -0.5 40.2 42.7 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.5 0.5 1.0 -0.6 39.9 41.4 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 4.7 5.9 -0.8 32.0 35.4 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.9 6.4 -0.5 39.4 42.0 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.2 6.4 -0.3 43.2 44.9 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.4 4.6 4.6 -0.8 33.7 36.6 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.6 4.9 5.7 -0.8 34.6 37.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 3.1 2.7 1.5 -1.8 18.0 22.3 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.9 5.4 6.3 -0.7 36.8 39.5 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.6 -1.7 17.5 22.4 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.0 2.0 -0.5 40.9 42.2 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 5.7 6.7 -0.5 40.4 42.7 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------