***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9.6 9.7 9.6 0.9 74.2 68.4 8.1 8.7 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 9.3 9.7 9.4 1.0 78.5 71.6 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 11.1 11.2 9.5 0.8 73.9 67.9 9.4 10.2 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.2 6.4 0.3 58.3 56.8 4.2 4.9 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.2 6.8 0.3 59.4 58.2 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.0 4.4 0.2 55.9 55.7 5.4 5.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 9.3 9.7 9.6 1.2 81.4 73.8 7.7 8.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 1.3 0.9 4.4 0.2 57.6 57.2 0.1 0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 8.2 8.0 7.1 0.4 63.0 60.7 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 8.2 8.0 5.4 0.3 59.8 58.6 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 7.7 7.5 6.2 0.3 58.4 57.7 6.8 7.3 7.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.0 5.3 0.3 58.6 57.7 5.4 5.8 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.4 7.0 4.9 0.1 53.3 53.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.9 8.6 6.9 0.3 60.9 58.8 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.8 7.7 0.4 62.5 59.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.4 8.3 5.6 0.2 56.5 56.1 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 9.4 9.8 9.2 1.0 78.4 71.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.0 4.8 0.3 59.7 58.3 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 9.1 9.4 9.3 1.0 77.4 70.8 7.7 8.3 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 2.9 2.7 0.3 57.4 57.2 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.2 8.5 0.5 64.7 61.8 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 8.6 8.8 9.0 0.9 76.0 70.0 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 8.7 8.9 9.1 0.9 75.8 69.6 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.1 6.8 0.4 63.1 60.4 7.1 7.7 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.7 8.1 0.6 66.4 63.1 7.4 8.1 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.8 4.4 0.1 53.3 53.7 6.3 6.7 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 9.6 9.6 9.0 0.8 72.4 67.3 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.7 6.7 0.2 56.7 55.6 6.2 6.6 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 5.8 5.4 4.1 0.3 60.0 58.7 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 9.4 9.7 9.6 1.0 78.6 71.5 7.8 8.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------