***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 17.9 17.4 16.6 -0.1 48.3 49.0 16.2 17.6 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 17.6 18.0 17.4 0.6 59.6 58.8 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.7 17.3 16.7 -0.1 49.5 50.3 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.4 12.2 -1.5 29.4 32.7 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.0 16.4 14.1 -1.0 36.0 38.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 14.2 14.0 11.0 -2.1 24.6 28.6 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.9 17.4 0.7 61.0 59.8 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 3.6 11.8 -1.4 33.0 35.8 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.4 16.1 15.2 -0.8 39.3 41.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.2 13.2 -0.9 38.2 40.5 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.7 16.0 14.4 -1.1 35.7 38.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.0 12.8 -1.2 33.9 36.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.7 16.1 13.9 -1.0 36.7 38.9 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 17.6 16.7 15.4 -0.5 44.2 45.5 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 15.7 15.7 14.6 -1.6 26.9 30.5 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.2 13.7 -1.2 34.2 36.9 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 17.0 17.7 17.4 0.9 64.0 62.5 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 15.7 12.5 -1.0 38.1 40.1 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 17.4 17.6 17.3 0.5 57.3 56.9 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.1 -1.3 34.7 36.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 17.6 16.4 16.0 -0.7 39.8 41.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.8 17.1 0.5 57.8 57.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 17.7 17.8 17.0 0.3 54.9 54.9 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 17.4 16.3 15.0 -0.6 41.8 43.4 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 17.7 16.3 14.9 -0.9 37.6 39.6 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.1 11.8 -1.3 32.4 35.1 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 17.4 16.6 15.9 -0.4 44.6 45.7 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 15.6 15.6 13.1 -1.7 26.4 30.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.9 10.4 11.8 -1.0 37.9 39.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 17.4 17.6 17.2 0.4 56.2 55.9 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------