***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 21.5 22.6 20.5 2.9 80.9 73.7 18.4 19.8 21.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 21.9 23.6 21.0 3.4 85.6 78.3 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 21.6 22.9 20.8 3.0 80.5 73.6 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.9 17.1 2.3 74.7 68.0 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 21.9 22.5 18.4 2.4 74.7 68.5 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 20.4 20.8 16.3 2.6 74.8 67.8 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 21.5 23.2 21.0 3.4 86.2 78.9 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.9 16.5 2.5 73.5 67.8 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 21.5 22.2 19.3 2.6 76.4 70.0 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 21.4 22.0 17.7 2.7 75.6 69.4 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 21.7 22.3 18.6 2.6 75.7 69.2 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 20.7 21.5 17.6 2.6 75.7 69.1 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 21.5 22.4 17.8 2.7 76.3 69.6 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 21.7 22.5 19.1 2.6 75.5 70.1 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 21.1 22.0 18.9 2.4 77.0 69.1 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 22.1 22.9 18.1 2.7 76.2 69.3 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 21.2 22.9 20.9 3.6 86.8 79.9 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 20.9 21.5 17.0 2.6 73.8 68.3 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 21.5 23.1 20.9 3.2 84.1 76.9 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.2 14.3 2.2 70.4 65.9 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 21.5 22.2 19.9 2.5 75.6 69.6 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 22.0 23.3 20.5 3.0 82.6 76.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 21.9 23.3 20.8 3.2 82.5 75.6 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 21.3 22.0 19.0 2.6 75.5 69.8 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 21.2 22.0 18.6 2.3 75.0 69.0 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.8 21.6 16.7 2.7 77.1 69.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 21.2 22.1 19.6 2.5 78.1 71.6 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 21.4 22.1 17.9 2.4 75.5 68.2 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 15.9 16.3 16.0 2.4 71.7 66.9 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 21.5 23.1 20.9 3.2 84.2 76.8 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------