***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 24.1 24.4 20.7 2.1 75.3 66.4 21.0 22.3 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 23.8 24.9 21.1 2.7 81.4 70.1 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 23.8 24.2 21.0 2.1 74.9 66.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.2 16.2 18.1 1.5 68.1 61.8 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.1 18.3 1.2 63.8 59.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.7 21.4 16.4 1.3 63.7 59.5 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 23.3 24.4 21.1 2.7 81.6 70.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.6 16.6 1.1 61.6 57.5 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.1 22.7 18.8 1.3 65.1 60.1 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.0 22.5 17.5 1.2 63.4 58.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.7 18.2 1.3 64.2 59.5 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 21.2 21.9 17.8 1.3 64.7 59.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 22.0 22.8 17.1 1.4 65.0 60.1 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.0 18.4 1.2 64.1 59.1 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.2 23.5 19.3 1.9 73.8 65.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 22.5 23.4 17.9 1.4 66.0 60.9 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 23.0 24.2 21.0 2.7 82.1 70.5 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 22.0 17.0 1.2 62.5 58.1 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 23.4 24.2 21.0 2.5 79.2 68.5 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.7 14.1 0.8 58.4 55.3 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.2 19.8 1.5 67.4 61.5 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 23.6 24.3 20.5 2.2 77.6 67.2 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 23.6 24.1 20.7 2.1 74.9 65.8 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 22.9 22.6 18.6 1.4 65.4 60.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.3 18.7 1.6 69.3 62.5 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 21.1 22.4 17.2 1.7 69.4 63.0 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 23.2 23.5 19.8 1.9 73.0 64.9 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.3 23.3 18.4 1.6 69.3 62.7 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 15.8 0.9 59.8 56.2 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 23.6 24.5 21.0 2.5 80.0 69.3 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------