***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 21.8 22.8 20.1 1.9 85.1 76.5 19.6 20.5 21.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 21.9 23.7 20.6 2.5 91.8 83.4 19.3 20.4 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 21.7 22.7 20.3 2.0 84.5 76.3 19.5 20.4 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.2 16.8 1.1 71.7 65.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 21.5 21.7 17.8 1.1 71.0 65.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.7 15.4 0.9 65.2 61.8 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 21.5 23.3 20.6 2.6 92.3 84.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.9 15.8 1.0 66.8 62.6 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 21.1 21.3 18.5 1.3 73.7 67.9 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 20.9 21.0 17.0 1.2 71.0 65.8 19.1 20.0 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 20.9 21.1 17.8 1.2 71.5 66.1 19.2 20.0 20.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 20.1 20.2 17.0 1.2 70.9 65.3 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 21.1 21.3 16.9 1.2 72.1 66.6 19.2 20.1 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 21.4 21.7 18.3 1.3 73.7 68.0 19.3 20.3 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 21.2 21.6 18.5 1.3 75.9 68.0 19.4 20.3 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 21.6 21.8 17.3 1.3 72.6 66.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 21.2 23.1 20.5 2.6 93.2 85.2 18.6 19.6 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 20.4 20.5 16.3 1.1 69.2 64.4 18.6 19.5 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 21.5 23.0 20.5 2.3 90.0 81.3 19.0 20.0 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.1 13.6 0.8 62.9 59.7 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 21.4 21.7 19.3 1.4 75.2 68.9 19.3 20.3 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 21.7 23.2 20.1 2.2 88.8 80.5 19.2 20.3 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 21.7 23.0 20.3 2.1 86.8 78.3 19.4 20.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 21.0 21.3 18.3 1.3 73.9 68.0 19.0 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.7 18.2 1.3 75.7 68.9 19.3 20.2 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 20.3 20.6 16.2 1.3 74.1 67.7 18.5 19.4 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 21.2 21.9 19.2 1.7 81.5 73.6 19.2 20.1 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 21.2 21.4 17.4 1.1 71.8 65.4 19.5 20.3 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.3 15.3 0.9 66.0 62.0 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 21.6 23.2 20.5 2.3 90.3 81.6 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------