***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.6 6.1 7.0 45.2 32.5 28.4 6.3 10.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 4.2 4.5 5.2 39.4 29.6 25.5 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 7.2 8.1 6.9 45.7 33.0 29.0 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.6 12.7 10.9 57.5 40.1 33.5 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.4 8.6 8.7 49.0 34.7 30.6 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 6.6 7.5 9.8 49.8 31.2 28.0 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.3 5.0 38.8 29.7 25.1 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 15.0 18.7 12.7 60.3 38.7 34.3 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 6.1 7.7 8.6 49.1 33.7 29.5 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.5 10.8 12.3 59.2 38.6 34.4 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 5.7 7.9 9.6 51.8 36.4 31.4 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 8.2 10.5 10.5 56.7 37.5 32.0 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 8.5 9.9 9.5 48.7 33.5 29.1 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 7.7 8.7 9.7 49.9 33.3 30.2 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 5.4 8.3 9.3 58.1 43.8 34.5 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 6.7 8.1 8.9 48.9 34.4 29.5 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.7 38.1 28.2 23.7 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 9.4 12.1 13.2 63.3 39.9 36.1 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.2 4.4 5.6 40.6 29.7 25.9 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.5 11.1 14.5 65.9 41.9 38.2 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.0 7.3 7.7 46.3 33.0 28.8 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.9 3.6 5.0 38.1 27.3 24.1 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 4.7 5.3 6.5 43.9 31.1 27.1 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.6 10.4 10.1 54.8 36.8 32.9 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 5.4 6.2 7.9 44.7 32.4 28.7 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.1 6.4 10.0 55.2 37.1 32.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 5.0 5.7 7.4 44.7 32.5 28.6 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.9 7.9 10.2 56.4 40.2 32.5 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.8 15.8 13.3 63.0 40.2 36.5 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.8 5.6 41.4 31.2 27.1 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------