***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.2 11.1 79.5 53.7 46.0 6.4 10.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.6 9.5 75.8 51.8 42.9 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.0 10.0 69.1 47.4 39.2 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.6 9.9 11.5 70.9 49.7 41.7 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.4 12.0 75.5 52.0 44.5 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.0 12.7 68.0 45.4 39.7 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.3 9.1 74.8 51.0 42.9 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 13.4 11.7 69.7 47.7 40.7 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.6 12.5 76.9 51.6 44.5 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.7 12.1 69.3 47.8 41.1 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.8 11.5 72.3 49.1 41.9 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.1 11.1 73.1 49.4 42.1 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.3 12.8 73.7 50.0 42.7 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.4 9.9 12.5 66.0 46.3 38.6 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.7 10.3 71.0 50.3 41.1 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.4 12.3 75.5 51.1 43.6 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.2 8.3 68.3 48.2 39.9 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.0 14.3 75.4 50.7 44.0 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.3 6.9 9.9 74.9 51.0 42.5 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 8.5 14.6 75.0 48.9 41.9 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.7 11.3 73.7 49.5 42.4 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.0 8.1 61.7 44.1 36.5 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.7 10.6 73.6 50.1 42.1 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.4 13.4 74.2 50.2 43.2 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.8 10.7 68.1 47.0 40.3 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.6 5.3 10.6 62.5 42.3 35.6 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.7 10.6 71.8 49.0 42.2 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.0 10.9 70.3 49.8 41.4 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 11.8 14.8 75.7 50.4 43.5 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.1 9.2 70.9 48.3 39.5 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------