***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.7 14.1 82.7 55.0 43.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.2 13.9 94.5 60.0 46.3 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.2 14.4 87.5 57.3 45.0 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.8 10.6 14.6 80.0 53.3 43.3 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.5 15.2 83.2 54.9 44.3 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.4 19.2 93.5 58.4 50.9 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.3 6.3 13.8 91.8 58.5 44.2 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.1 18.2 16.8 87.3 55.8 46.1 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.1 16.4 85.9 55.8 44.4 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.4 17.6 85.1 54.5 44.4 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.5 14.6 85.2 55.5 45.3 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 9.4 14.6 85.1 55.2 45.1 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.3 17.4 88.6 56.6 47.6 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.5 20.8 94.0 59.2 46.9 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.5 7.7 13.1 80.7 55.2 42.0 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.3 15.5 86.0 55.8 46.3 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.7 12.8 88.7 57.6 44.3 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.3 19.9 90.3 56.5 45.7 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.5 14.1 93.7 59.6 46.0 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.0 20.5 96.4 59.4 48.9 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.7 15.3 87.5 57.2 45.2 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.9 12.9 86.0 56.4 43.4 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.7 14.7 90.8 58.3 44.5 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.6 19.2 94.1 58.7 46.0 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.7 15.1 79.8 53.5 43.1 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.2 15.1 83.8 54.8 45.6 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.9 5.8 14.6 80.2 53.7 42.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.6 14.7 83.3 55.8 45.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.3 20.5 94.3 58.5 47.5 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.6 13.9 90.8 58.2 45.0 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------