***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.1 7.9 12.4 68.7 48.4 35.5 4.5 8.3 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.8 7.4 11.6 67.7 47.2 35.2 4.4 8.2 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 4.1 7.7 11.5 65.0 46.3 34.5 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.6 11.0 13.3 65.3 46.5 35.4 6.4 12.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.2 7.3 11.6 59.6 42.8 33.8 4.9 9.5 15.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.1 11.1 16.1 76.2 50.0 41.9 5.6 11.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 4.1 7.3 11.0 62.7 45.1 34.0 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 9.1 17.4 15.1 74.3 48.1 39.9 10.5 18.4 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 4.5 7.4 11.2 56.5 40.7 32.2 5.5 10.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.9 9.0 14.7 67.3 45.0 36.6 5.8 10.5 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.9 8.1 11.6 63.9 44.4 36.0 5.4 9.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.7 11.4 12.8 71.8 48.2 39.4 7.2 11.9 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.1 9.1 15.5 78.2 52.0 43.0 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.4 11.6 16.0 70.7 47.3 37.0 7.1 12.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.4 8.3 12.6 65.4 48.1 35.3 4.6 8.8 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.4 13.2 70.5 48.5 39.2 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 5.1 10.4 11.7 69.8 48.5 35.7 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.6 11.0 16.8 74.5 48.3 39.0 6.6 11.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 7.0 13.7 12.2 71.3 49.2 35.8 8.3 14.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 11.7 17.8 80.8 50.0 42.0 7.4 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 4.7 8.0 10.8 57.8 42.0 32.2 5.7 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 4.9 10.0 13.0 78.5 52.4 37.2 5.8 9.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 5.4 10.8 12.7 73.4 50.6 36.2 6.1 10.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.9 11.7 14.9 71.1 48.2 37.4 6.6 12.3 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 4.9 9.4 13.1 63.4 45.2 33.7 6.0 11.0 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.8 8.3 12.7 69.6 48.4 39.7 5.0 8.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 5.5 10.1 12.8 65.6 46.6 34.5 6.5 11.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.2 9.2 13.3 67.5 47.8 36.5 5.5 9.9 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 8.0 15.3 17.5 79.4 50.4 41.0 8.8 15.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 3.7 8.1 11.5 65.6 46.6 34.8 4.4 9.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------