***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 29.8 31.1 44.6 69.1 30.1 31.1 32.8 42.9 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.6 40.1 69.8 30.1 31.4 25.1 34.5 45.2 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 31.5 32.1 42.9 67.3 27.6 29.6 35.5 46.3 58.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 48.1 48.0 50.2 68.2 28.3 30.5 50.9 61.3 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 32.3 31.4 47.4 66.5 26.4 29.1 35.5 47.0 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 35.7 34.6 57.8 72.2 28.5 31.4 37.9 50.1 63.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 23.8 24.6 38.8 67.6 28.4 29.8 27.2 36.9 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 75.0 75.2 56.3 72.7 29.3 32.2 78.0 90.1 102.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 32.2 31.1 48.7 67.0 26.2 29.0 35.6 47.3 60.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 40.7 40.5 56.7 70.1 27.6 30.5 43.9 55.1 67.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 32.7 32.0 47.3 67.9 27.1 29.6 35.7 46.5 58.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 43.2 43.7 49.0 71.3 29.4 31.8 45.4 53.1 60.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 37.9 40.2 55.2 72.3 30.6 32.3 41.5 50.4 59.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 40.5 39.7 59.1 71.0 28.5 31.1 43.2 56.8 72.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 30.0 31.5 45.3 68.6 32.1 32.7 32.1 43.0 55.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 34.4 34.8 50.0 70.0 28.7 31.0 37.2 47.4 58.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 25.6 26.0 37.5 67.3 27.6 29.9 29.3 40.6 53.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 45.3 47.0 64.3 76.0 32.8 34.8 47.0 59.4 73.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 31.4 33.0 41.7 70.7 30.8 32.0 34.4 45.2 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 57.2 45.3 67.3 79.3 34.9 37.1 44.2 52.9 62.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 32.1 32.1 45.0 66.2 26.1 28.6 35.7 44.9 54.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 25.5 26.9 39.1 67.4 27.7 29.9 29.3 38.2 47.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 28.3 30.1 44.5 71.0 31.1 32.3 31.3 41.4 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 42.8 43.7 57.5 74.1 31.7 33.5 44.6 57.3 71.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 31.9 32.8 46.7 64.1 25.2 27.4 38.1 49.9 63.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 30.8 29.5 48.5 67.7 26.0 29.1 33.4 43.1 53.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 30.0 30.9 45.4 65.8 26.7 28.5 35.3 46.9 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 32.6 33.2 49.1 69.3 30.2 31.8 34.6 44.4 54.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 58.4 60.6 66.1 78.2 34.9 36.7 59.0 73.8 89.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 23.4 24.2 40.2 67.7 28.5 30.0 26.6 36.9 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------