***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.7 10.6 10.5 0.6 60.7 56.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.3 10.1 10.0 0.4 56.8 54.2 8.6 9.6 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 10.2 12.0 10.3 0.5 59.3 56.1 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.7 7.7 0.4 57.9 55.5 5.1 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.5 7.7 0.4 57.0 55.2 7.0 8.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.1 5.6 0.4 57.1 56.1 5.9 6.7 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.4 10.0 10.0 0.3 56.0 53.8 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.2 5.3 0.2 54.1 53.9 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.1 7.9 0.4 57.4 55.6 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.0 6.3 0.3 55.1 54.4 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.6 6.9 0.3 56.0 54.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.7 7.0 6.1 0.3 56.0 54.8 6.0 6.8 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.1 5.8 0.3 55.5 54.6 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.4 9.6 7.7 0.2 53.7 53.0 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.1 8.8 0.5 59.0 56.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.6 6.5 0.3 56.8 55.2 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.0 10.2 9.8 0.3 54.7 52.9 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 6.6 5.5 0.2 53.5 53.8 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.5 10.0 10.0 0.4 57.9 54.9 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.8 3.4 0.1 51.3 53.1 3.0 3.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.6 9.3 9.4 0.5 58.7 56.0 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.3 9.5 0.3 54.8 53.1 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.7 9.8 0.5 58.6 55.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.9 9.1 7.5 0.2 54.7 53.9 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.0 9.1 0.6 60.1 56.6 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.7 7.9 5.5 0.3 55.5 54.4 6.9 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.8 9.9 0.6 60.3 56.6 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.9 7.8 0.4 56.8 55.0 6.7 7.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 6.4 4.8 0.1 52.0 53.2 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.4 10.3 10.2 0.4 57.9 54.9 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------