***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.1 10.5 -0.3 45.6 48.4 9.3 10.3 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.1 10.1 -0.4 42.2 46.2 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.8 10.5 -0.2 45.6 48.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.1 8.1 -0.1 48.2 51.0 6.1 7.2 8.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.6 8.1 -0.1 47.6 50.7 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.9 6.3 0.2 53.2 54.6 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.0 10.1 -0.5 41.5 45.8 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.4 5.9 -0.2 46.3 49.6 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.5 8.4 -0.1 47.3 50.1 8.7 9.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.4 6.7 -0.2 46.3 49.4 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.2 7.5 -0.1 48.3 51.0 8.4 9.3 10.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.5 6.7 -0.1 48.7 51.2 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.0 6.5 0.1 51.1 52.8 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.9 8.1 -0.3 43.0 46.6 9.4 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.7 9.3 0.0 49.6 51.7 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 7.2 0.1 51.1 52.9 8.9 10.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.3 9.9 -0.5 40.2 45.0 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 7.8 6.0 -0.1 46.9 49.9 7.1 8.0 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.2 10.2 -0.3 43.6 47.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.3 4.0 -0.2 46.9 50.3 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.5 9.8 -0.1 47.3 49.9 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.5 9.7 -0.5 40.8 45.1 9.1 10.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.5 9.9 10.0 -0.2 45.1 48.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.5 7.9 -0.2 45.2 48.3 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.7 9.2 -0.2 46.9 49.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.8 6.2 0.1 52.8 53.8 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.3 9.9 -0.3 45.5 48.6 9.5 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 8.4 -0.1 48.8 51.2 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.9 5.4 -0.1 47.0 50.3 6.0 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.2 10.3 -0.4 43.1 46.7 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------