***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9.6 10.0 10.4 1.1 77.7 71.8 8.2 8.9 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.9 10.1 1.1 78.6 71.9 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.7 10.4 1.1 79.5 72.8 9.6 10.4 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.1 7.5 0.9 74.4 68.5 4.5 5.1 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.1 8.0 1.0 76.9 70.7 6.5 7.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.8 5.6 1.0 76.5 70.9 5.6 6.0 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.7 10.0 1.0 76.7 70.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 1.6 2.0 5.6 1.1 80.6 73.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 8.5 8.9 8.3 1.1 82.1 74.7 7.3 7.9 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 8.5 8.9 6.6 1.1 81.4 74.0 7.4 7.9 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.3 7.4 1.1 80.7 73.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.8 6.5 1.1 79.9 73.2 5.6 6.0 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.9 6.3 1.0 77.3 71.6 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.6 8.1 1.0 79.6 72.4 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.5 8.7 0.9 76.5 70.1 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.3 6.9 1.0 77.5 71.3 7.7 8.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.5 10.0 9.9 1.1 78.3 71.2 8.2 8.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 6.6 6.9 6.0 1.1 80.7 73.6 5.4 5.9 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.8 10.1 1.2 80.7 73.5 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 3.5 3.8 4.0 1.1 78.8 72.4 2.4 2.9 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 8.6 9.0 9.5 1.1 78.9 72.3 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.7 9.2 9.8 1.1 79.5 72.1 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 8.9 9.5 10.0 1.3 83.6 75.7 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 8.5 9.0 8.0 1.1 80.9 73.7 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.3 9.1 1.0 75.7 70.1 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.7 5.8 1.0 76.7 71.4 6.5 6.9 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.0 9.8 1.1 76.1 70.7 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.4 7.8 0.9 74.0 68.4 6.3 6.8 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 6.1 6.6 5.3 1.2 81.8 74.7 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.9 10.3 1.1 78.6 72.2 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------