***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 19.8 20.9 20.1 2.8 84.2 80.9 16.5 17.9 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 19.9 21.2 20.1 2.8 85.8 82.2 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 19.7 20.4 19.9 2.4 79.6 76.6 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.2 16.2 1.8 71.8 69.6 9.2 10.5 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 19.3 19.7 17.9 2.0 73.4 71.1 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 17.6 17.7 15.3 1.7 68.0 66.4 15.2 16.4 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 19.5 21.1 20.2 3.1 88.2 84.8 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.8 15.5 1.7 68.9 67.1 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 19.0 19.3 18.9 2.1 74.6 72.1 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 18.8 18.9 16.8 1.9 70.7 68.7 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 18.9 19.1 17.9 1.7 69.7 67.7 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 17.9 18.1 16.4 1.8 70.2 68.3 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 19.0 19.2 17.4 1.9 71.4 69.4 16.1 17.5 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 19.5 19.9 18.9 2.3 77.1 74.5 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 19.2 19.5 18.6 1.8 73.5 71.0 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 19.3 19.5 17.2 1.7 69.3 67.4 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 19.3 21.1 20.1 3.3 89.7 86.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.6 16.1 1.9 70.9 68.9 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 19.5 20.8 20.1 2.8 84.6 81.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.4 14.0 2.1 71.9 69.9 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 19.3 19.7 19.7 2.2 76.1 73.5 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 20.0 21.6 20.0 3.1 87.8 84.2 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 19.9 21.1 20.2 2.8 84.1 80.7 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 19.0 19.3 18.6 2.1 74.2 71.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 19.5 20.3 19.0 2.6 81.1 78.2 16.2 17.6 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 18.3 18.6 15.7 2.2 74.5 72.2 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 19.5 20.8 19.8 3.0 86.0 82.6 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 18.0 18.9 16.9 1.5 67.7 65.9 16.5 17.7 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.5 15.6 2.1 72.1 70.1 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 19.6 20.9 20.1 2.8 84.9 81.4 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------