***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 20.7 21.3 19.2 1.1 63.6 59.9 18.8 20.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.9 18.9 0.7 59.4 56.6 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.1 19.3 1.0 62.2 58.8 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.0 16.5 1.2 64.5 60.9 10.8 12.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 20.9 21.4 17.6 1.1 62.5 59.3 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.3 15.1 0.7 58.2 56.4 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 20.2 20.5 18.7 0.6 58.4 56.0 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.7 15.5 0.9 60.2 57.9 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 20.4 20.9 18.3 1.1 63.1 59.6 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.7 16.6 1.0 61.2 58.4 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 20.6 21.0 17.6 1.0 61.0 58.4 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.7 20.1 16.5 0.9 60.6 58.1 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.8 20.7 16.5 0.7 58.4 56.5 18.3 19.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.7 21.0 17.9 0.8 58.9 56.2 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 21.3 21.1 18.3 1.3 66.1 62.2 18.2 19.7 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.4 16.9 0.9 60.1 57.7 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 19.9 20.1 18.6 0.6 58.4 55.9 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 20.2 15.9 0.9 60.0 57.5 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.8 19.1 0.9 61.2 57.9 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.2 13.6 0.9 59.9 57.5 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.6 21.1 19.1 1.1 62.7 59.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 20.6 20.9 18.6 0.7 59.1 56.4 18.5 20.1 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 20.7 21.5 19.3 1.1 64.0 59.8 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.6 17.9 0.9 60.4 57.5 18.1 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 20.5 21.1 18.0 1.1 63.7 60.0 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 20.8 20.1 15.6 1.0 61.8 59.1 17.5 19.1 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 20.3 20.9 18.6 1.0 62.9 59.4 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 21.5 21.0 17.2 1.1 63.5 60.3 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.2 15.1 0.9 59.1 56.9 12.7 14.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.7 19.0 0.8 60.5 57.5 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------