***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.7 19.9 0.3 54.2 53.5 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.3 22.3 19.6 0.2 52.8 52.2 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.7 20.2 0.4 54.9 54.1 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 13.1 15.0 17.9 0.3 53.9 53.1 13.5 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 20.6 22.5 18.6 0.4 54.8 54.0 20.9 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.9 16.7 0.5 56.3 55.1 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 20.1 21.9 19.5 0.1 51.7 51.5 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.8 10.1 17.0 0.4 55.3 54.2 8.1 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.2 22.1 19.0 0.5 55.6 54.5 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.0 17.8 0.5 55.5 54.5 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.2 22.2 18.5 0.5 56.0 54.9 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.2 21.3 18.0 0.5 56.3 55.1 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 22.2 22.1 17.4 0.6 56.6 55.4 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.3 22.2 18.5 0.3 53.3 53.1 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 22.4 22.2 18.8 0.4 55.5 54.1 20.7 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.6 22.6 18.1 0.5 56.4 55.1 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 19.6 21.5 19.3 0.1 51.6 51.2 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.5 21.5 17.3 0.4 54.7 53.9 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.1 22.1 19.8 0.3 54.4 53.4 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 14.3 16.4 14.8 0.4 54.2 53.3 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.4 22.3 19.7 0.4 54.7 53.9 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.2 22.1 19.3 0.2 52.0 51.6 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.5 22.5 20.0 0.5 56.5 54.9 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.9 18.6 0.4 54.5 53.9 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.2 18.4 0.3 54.1 53.2 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.5 17.2 0.7 58.8 56.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 20.3 22.1 19.2 0.3 54.1 53.2 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 20.5 22.2 18.2 0.4 54.5 53.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.2 16.3 16.4 0.3 53.9 53.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 20.3 22.2 19.7 0.3 53.3 52.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------