***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 21.0 21.9 19.8 1.0 69.3 64.7 19.8 20.8 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 21.0 21.7 19.5 0.8 66.8 62.7 19.6 20.6 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 21.0 21.6 19.8 0.8 66.3 62.7 19.7 20.7 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.1 17.1 0.7 63.8 60.8 12.5 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 21.1 21.5 18.1 0.7 64.1 61.3 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 19.4 19.7 15.8 0.6 60.9 59.3 18.3 19.2 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 20.6 21.3 19.5 0.8 67.4 63.0 19.3 20.3 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.9 16.1 0.6 60.9 59.1 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 21.2 21.0 18.7 0.8 65.0 62.2 19.3 20.2 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.8 17.1 0.7 62.4 60.2 19.3 20.2 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.9 18.0 0.7 62.3 60.0 19.4 20.3 21.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.0 17.1 0.7 62.2 59.9 18.6 19.5 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 20.7 21.0 17.0 0.7 62.1 60.0 19.5 20.4 21.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.3 18.3 0.6 62.4 59.7 19.6 20.5 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 20.8 21.3 18.5 0.8 65.6 62.2 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 21.2 21.5 17.4 0.6 61.9 59.7 20.0 20.9 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 20.9 21.0 19.3 0.8 68.1 63.3 18.9 19.9 20.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.3 16.5 0.6 61.4 59.4 18.9 19.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 20.6 21.4 19.7 0.9 67.7 63.5 19.3 20.3 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.3 14.1 0.7 61.5 59.6 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 20.8 21.3 19.5 0.8 65.2 62.0 19.5 20.5 21.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 21.7 21.7 19.2 0.8 67.3 62.8 19.5 20.6 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 21.6 21.8 19.8 1.0 69.7 65.1 19.6 20.6 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.8 18.3 0.7 62.8 60.3 19.2 20.2 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 20.7 21.5 18.4 0.9 68.4 64.1 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 19.9 20.4 16.3 0.9 66.3 63.4 18.8 19.6 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 20.6 21.4 19.2 1.0 70.4 65.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 20.8 21.1 17.5 0.6 61.6 59.2 19.7 20.5 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.3 15.7 0.6 61.2 59.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 20.7 21.5 19.6 0.8 67.3 63.2 19.3 20.4 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------