***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 4.3 5.2 8.1 51.5 35.2 30.2 4.8 9.1 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 5.8 8.3 62.3 41.8 34.3 4.2 7.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 6.3 9.6 10.1 66.0 43.9 36.5 6.8 11.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.8 13.4 11.0 60.0 39.4 34.1 11.7 16.2 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.6 11.0 11.6 67.0 43.2 37.3 8.2 13.2 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 12.4 16.1 87.6 53.9 44.9 7.4 11.4 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.2 4.9 8.1 59.9 39.9 32.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 16.0 26.4 20.0 97.3 59.2 49.6 16.7 22.8 29.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.3 10.8 12.0 69.0 44.3 38.4 7.5 12.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 7.7 14.6 18.2 85.2 52.8 44.7 8.0 13.5 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.8 13.3 14.3 80.5 51.7 43.1 8.0 12.7 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.1 15.1 16.4 95.2 58.7 48.2 7.9 12.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.2 18.7 17.7 97.8 60.4 47.8 9.9 15.0 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.5 16.2 19.0 98.1 59.6 49.5 6.9 12.2 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 6.3 10.2 10.3 65.8 47.2 37.5 6.6 11.0 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 7.4 13.2 13.7 81.4 51.6 42.2 7.9 12.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 3.0 4.9 7.9 59.8 40.3 33.2 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.5 16.9 20.6 94.7 57.4 48.6 9.2 14.3 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 6.7 9.1 66.3 44.1 36.9 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 18.0 23.7 108.4 64.3 55.0 9.1 13.4 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.4 8.6 10.1 62.4 40.0 34.6 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.0 6.8 9.3 69.3 46.2 38.9 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.8 7.6 10.4 71.2 46.5 40.4 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.6 16.7 16.7 89.0 55.2 45.8 8.7 14.6 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 4.8 6.0 9.0 51.5 33.7 29.3 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.6 14.6 18.2 105.2 63.4 52.9 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.7 4.6 8.6 52.3 35.1 30.3 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.7 10.6 12.4 72.3 48.3 39.7 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 23.1 22.9 107.3 63.6 53.6 11.3 17.2 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.5 5.3 8.6 61.8 41.8 34.6 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------