***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 13.9 91.7 59.3 49.5 6.0 9.7 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.8 13.5 97.1 61.9 51.1 3.1 6.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.3 14.6 95.3 60.2 48.5 5.0 8.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.8 10.4 14.2 76.7 51.4 42.4 5.9 10.0 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.8 15.6 90.4 57.7 47.5 4.3 7.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.8 19.8 101.3 61.6 51.6 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.0 12.4 89.4 58.5 47.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.2 19.0 18.4 99.1 61.1 50.0 9.4 14.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.4 16.3 93.5 59.4 48.7 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.3 18.6 97.7 61.0 49.9 4.8 8.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.5 17.0 93.1 58.0 48.1 4.1 7.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.3 17.1 97.6 60.2 49.2 3.9 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.9 9.5 18.3 94.9 58.4 48.0 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.1 15.5 21.4 109.7 65.6 51.9 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.9 12.3 69.7 49.0 39.8 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.6 17.9 96.1 59.4 49.8 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.2 13.0 96.5 61.4 48.4 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.4 21.1 105.8 63.9 51.7 5.6 9.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.1 14.5 100.1 62.8 51.3 3.7 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 11.2 20.9 97.4 58.7 49.2 5.1 8.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.1 15.4 93.8 59.5 48.8 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.9 13.5 92.3 59.1 46.9 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.9 16.0 102.0 62.9 50.4 3.4 6.2 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.0 19.3 103.3 62.8 50.6 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.1 16.2 92.8 59.3 49.8 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.2 16.6 91.8 56.4 44.8 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.3 15.0 91.6 58.8 49.2 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.2 14.0 78.1 52.6 43.2 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 19.0 21.9 104.7 63.0 50.8 7.7 13.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.1 13.2 92.2 59.7 49.6 3.7 6.7 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------