***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.4 17.8 110.5 66.3 52.8 3.1 5.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.3 15.5 108.1 65.7 52.1 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.7 16.8 111.4 66.5 54.4 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 15.2 18.4 103.2 63.5 53.4 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.3 17.9 109.5 65.8 54.8 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.3 14.0 18.7 98.8 61.1 52.2 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 11.1 16.2 111.0 66.9 52.2 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.8 26.6 18.5 108.8 65.4 53.7 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.3 12.7 18.6 112.2 66.7 54.9 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.9 20.1 110.7 66.1 54.2 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.3 16.8 109.6 65.6 53.1 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.7 15.0 16.3 106.7 64.7 53.2 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.5 18.6 102.7 63.0 52.0 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.1 21.8 108.8 65.4 56.7 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.1 17.8 106.4 65.4 51.9 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.3 17.6 104.3 63.5 51.7 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 11.6 15.0 103.6 64.3 51.3 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 17.5 16.8 23.2 119.6 69.3 58.2 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.0 15.3 105.1 64.5 52.1 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 15.2 22.5 117.2 68.3 56.8 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.4 17.5 109.7 65.9 54.2 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.0 14.8 96.7 61.6 50.6 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.8 15.3 100.8 62.5 51.9 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.7 14.7 21.1 118.4 68.8 57.5 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.1 19.0 104.3 63.8 52.6 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.3 17.3 105.5 64.1 52.4 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.0 18.9 108.8 65.6 52.6 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.0 17.8 102.0 63.3 52.0 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 21.8 23.6 122.7 70.3 59.1 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.2 16.5 113.2 67.4 53.5 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------