***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 45.5 41.1 59.3 91.5 49.6 47.1 31.5 41.3 52.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 37.8 35.7 55.9 96.7 53.9 50.2 23.1 33.1 44.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 49.3 47.4 61.0 97.5 54.5 50.8 33.0 44.0 56.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 66.0 59.8 65.1 88.0 47.1 45.8 51.2 61.7 72.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 52.9 48.5 65.2 94.6 52.3 48.9 35.5 46.7 59.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 54.0 55.5 79.3 102.2 57.8 53.0 36.6 49.1 63.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 41.2 36.2 54.7 93.0 50.8 48.0 25.8 35.8 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 93.8 96.6 80.1 105.6 60.7 54.3 75.1 88.1 101.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 33.9 48.9 67.0 95.8 53.1 48.8 34.7 46.7 60.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 61.7 61.1 80.9 101.9 57.8 52.4 43.0 55.1 68.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 51.3 50.6 68.6 100.4 56.6 51.5 35.6 46.0 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 55.2 56.5 70.6 104.7 60.1 53.5 43.7 51.6 60.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 53.2 55.5 78.8 105.0 60.2 54.5 40.5 49.5 59.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 62.4 66.9 87.8 107.4 62.2 56.4 41.7 55.6 71.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 48.7 43.0 60.9 89.5 49.9 47.0 32.1 43.0 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 50.5 50.4 71.1 100.7 56.9 52.1 35.7 45.9 56.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 46.8 40.0 53.7 92.3 50.2 46.7 28.1 40.0 53.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 62.8 68.4 91.1 108.6 63.2 56.9 45.1 57.4 70.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 49.7 48.4 58.2 98.6 55.5 51.2 32.4 44.1 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 56.2 60.8 92.7 109.2 63.8 57.9 43.3 52.6 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.8 44.9 61.8 93.8 52.1 48.8 34.4 43.7 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 41.8 38.5 57.1 94.4 51.9 48.6 28.4 37.6 47.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 45.7 43.6 61.7 98.6 55.4 50.8 30.1 40.2 51.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 62.0 66.0 80.5 106.2 61.3 55.5 43.3 56.3 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 53.9 46.7 65.6 89.7 48.2 45.9 35.9 48.0 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 47.7 50.5 74.8 107.3 62.1 55.7 33.3 42.8 53.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 50.5 43.7 63.3 90.8 48.7 45.9 32.9 44.5 57.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 48.7 44.5 65.2 91.4 50.4 47.7 34.7 44.5 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 77.4 88.3 94.6 112.7 66.6 59.7 58.0 72.2 87.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 40.8 38.5 57.1 96.7 54.0 50.7 25.1 35.7 48.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------