***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 5.3 5.1 5.6 -1.9 19.8 27.5 6.0 7.0 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 4.4 4.0 5.3 -2.0 17.5 25.5 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 6.4 6.0 5.7 -1.9 18.9 27.3 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 1.3 0.7 2.9 -2.1 17.7 26.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.5 3.3 4.1 -1.8 21.4 30.4 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.5 1.8 -1.3 30.9 36.6 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 4.7 4.4 5.3 -2.0 17.8 25.3 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 1.4 -1.7 23.1 32.4 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.5 4.3 4.2 -1.6 22.3 30.8 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.5 4.3 2.4 -1.8 21.2 31.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.4 4.4 3.8 -1.5 24.9 32.9 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.0 3.0 2.7 -1.5 25.1 33.7 3.5 4.5 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.3 4.4 3.1 -1.2 29.9 36.4 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.9 4.5 3.8 -1.8 19.5 29.1 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 5.4 5.7 5.2 -1.2 29.0 33.9 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 4.9 5.0 3.4 -1.4 26.4 33.9 5.4 6.5 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 4.6 4.1 4.9 -2.1 15.4 23.3 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.4 1.7 -1.9 20.0 30.8 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 4.6 4.2 5.3 -1.9 17.9 26.2 5.3 6.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 23.3 34.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 4.3 4.0 5.2 -1.8 20.2 28.5 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 4.1 3.6 5.1 -2.0 15.8 23.9 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 4.5 4.1 5.2 -1.8 18.7 27.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.2 3.8 3.8 -1.9 18.5 28.3 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 4.3 4.0 4.8 -2.0 19.3 27.5 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.3 2.4 -1.1 33.4 39.5 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.7 4.4 5.2 -2.0 19.9 27.8 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.9 -1.6 24.1 30.9 4.1 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 1.4 0.9 0.7 -2.1 19.1 30.8 2.0 3.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 4.8 4.5 5.5 -1.9 18.4 26.2 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------