***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.3 8.2 8.3 -0.5 41.0 43.8 7.7 8.8 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 6.1 6.8 7.7 -0.9 33.4 38.1 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 8.0 9.0 8.2 -0.6 37.4 41.3 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.5 4.2 5.9 -0.2 45.4 45.8 3.2 4.6 5.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.1 6.4 6.4 -0.3 44.0 45.5 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.9 4.5 0.4 58.7 52.4 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 6.3 7.1 7.8 -0.8 34.6 39.1 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -1.4 -0.1 3.8 -0.3 44.5 46.7 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.4 -0.4 41.2 44.4 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 6.0 7.0 4.7 -0.4 41.7 44.9 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.5 6.7 5.7 -0.2 45.6 46.7 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.9 -0.1 48.3 48.4 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 5.4 6.6 4.9 0.0 50.4 49.0 5.7 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.9 5.8 -0.8 32.6 38.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 6.6 8.2 7.5 0.1 53.4 49.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 6.4 7.9 5.4 0.0 49.6 48.7 6.9 7.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 6.7 7.0 7.3 -1.1 28.6 34.9 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.9 4.9 4.1 -0.4 41.2 44.6 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.9 7.7 -0.8 33.6 38.3 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 1.0 2.1 2.4 -0.2 45.6 47.4 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 5.8 6.8 7.6 -0.5 40.2 43.5 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 6.0 6.1 7.2 -1.1 26.9 34.0 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.1 6.8 7.5 -0.8 33.9 38.7 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 5.8 6.5 5.9 -0.6 36.7 41.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 6.0 7.4 7.4 -0.4 43.0 45.1 6.6 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.3 7.1 4.8 0.6 62.1 54.6 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 6.0 7.7 7.9 -0.4 42.9 44.9 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.8 6.2 6.5 0.0 51.0 48.8 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.1 3.4 -0.4 40.2 44.4 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 6.4 7.2 8.0 -0.7 35.8 39.8 7.0 8.4 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------