***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9.0 10.1 10.7 -0.3 43.7 44.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 9.3 10.4 10.5 -0.3 43.9 44.4 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.9 10.7 -0.3 43.6 44.6 11.2 12.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.3 8.2 -0.1 47.0 47.5 6.4 7.5 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.7 8.3 -0.1 47.0 47.6 7.9 8.9 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.8 6.4 -0.1 47.5 47.8 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 9.2 10.3 10.5 -0.3 44.2 44.2 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.9 2.8 6.2 -0.1 46.9 47.3 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.6 8.6 -0.2 46.1 46.8 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.4 7.0 -0.2 45.9 46.5 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.2 7.7 -0.1 47.8 48.2 8.5 9.4 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.6 6.8 -0.1 46.7 47.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.7 6.4 -0.3 42.9 44.7 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.0 8.4 -0.3 42.1 44.2 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.7 9.5 0.0 50.4 49.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.9 7.1 -0.2 45.9 47.1 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 9.7 10.6 10.3 -0.4 42.5 43.1 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.8 6.3 -0.2 45.4 46.3 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.5 -0.3 44.1 44.9 9.7 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.4 4.3 -0.2 46.5 47.3 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 8.4 9.4 9.8 -0.3 43.8 44.8 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.8 10.1 -0.4 42.2 43.5 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 9.0 10.0 10.3 -0.3 44.3 45.4 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.7 9.5 8.2 -0.3 43.5 44.8 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.6 9.2 -0.4 43.0 43.8 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.9 6.4 0.1 51.8 51.5 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 9.0 10.3 10.0 -0.3 43.6 44.0 9.5 10.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.7 8.6 -0.1 48.0 48.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.0 5.8 -0.2 46.4 47.1 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.2 10.4 10.6 -0.3 44.2 44.8 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------