***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.6 -0.7 30.1 37.1 8.4 9.1 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 7.6 7.6 8.3 -0.8 25.6 33.8 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 9.4 9.5 8.6 -0.7 26.3 34.5 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.4 6.0 -0.7 27.8 34.9 4.7 5.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 6.4 6.6 6.5 -0.6 29.4 36.7 6.7 7.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.6 5.9 4.5 -0.3 39.5 43.1 5.7 6.2 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 7.8 7.9 8.3 -0.8 26.2 34.3 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 0.1 0.3 4.1 -0.6 29.3 37.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 7.2 7.4 6.6 -0.6 29.1 36.4 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 7.2 7.3 5.0 -0.7 27.2 35.8 7.5 8.0 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 6.9 7.1 5.9 -0.5 31.6 38.0 7.2 7.6 8.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 5.5 5.7 5.0 -0.5 32.0 38.6 5.7 6.2 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 6.7 6.9 4.9 -0.5 33.3 39.2 6.9 7.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 7.7 7.7 6.3 -0.8 23.3 32.9 8.0 8.6 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 8.1 8.5 7.6 -0.3 39.6 42.2 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.9 5.4 -0.5 32.7 38.8 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.1 7.9 8.0 -0.9 21.9 31.2 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 5.3 5.3 4.3 -0.7 25.6 35.3 5.6 6.1 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 7.8 7.8 8.3 -0.8 25.7 33.9 8.1 8.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.4 2.5 2.4 -0.7 29.1 38.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 7.2 7.3 7.9 -0.7 27.9 35.8 7.5 8.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 7.3 7.2 7.9 -0.9 21.1 30.3 7.7 8.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 7.5 7.6 8.1 -0.7 25.9 34.0 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 7.1 7.2 6.2 -0.8 23.6 33.0 7.5 8.1 8.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.6 7.5 -0.7 29.3 36.7 7.8 8.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.0 4.7 -0.1 45.4 47.0 6.7 7.1 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.1 8.1 -0.7 30.5 37.5 8.2 8.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 -0.5 33.3 38.3 6.5 7.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 4.4 4.4 3.6 -0.8 25.3 35.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 7.8 8.0 8.5 -0.7 27.0 34.7 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------